PANAMA CITY, FL — A new poll conducted by Guidant Polling and Strategy shows that Austin Rogers enters the final weeks of Florida’s 2nd Congressional District Republican primary in the driver’s seat, surging into first place while consolidating anti-Keith Gross voters across North Florida.
The survey of 400 likely Republican primary voters, conducted July 29-31, 2026, confirms that the primary has become a clear two-person contest, with Rogers leading Keith Gross 21% to 17% and all other candidates remaining in single digits.
Key Takeaways from the Poll
Rogers Surges to the Top: Since March, Austin Rogers has climbed 18 percentage points (from 3% to 21%), while Keith Gross has stalled at 17%. This represents a net 17-point shift in Rogers’ favor.
Keith Gross’ Image Flips Upside Down: Gross’ favorability rating has collapsed, shifting from 20% favorable / 6% unfavorable in March to 26% favorable / 35% unfavorable in July. Meanwhile, Rogers’ favorability has surged to 32% favorable / 8% unfavorable.
Dominating the America First Base: Among voters who approve of President Donald Trump, Rogers leads Gross 23% to 17%. Among self-identified evangelical voters—who make up roughly 70% of the primary electorate—Rogers holds a 22% to 15% lead over Gross (+7 points).
Potential Trump Endorsement Ends the Race: Undecided voters indicated by a more than 3:1 margin (40% to 11%) that an endorsement from President Trump would make them more likely to support Rogers, positioning him to blow the race open in the final stretch.
Unmatched Resources & Local Backing
The polling memo notes that Austin Rogers enters the home stretch with both critical financial strength and grassroots support. Rogers has raised over $1 million to date and holds over $350,000 in campaign cash on hand to communicate his closing argument through Election Day. In addition, public filings show that Panhandle Patriots PAC, the outside committee supporting Rogers, continues to spend to support Rogers’ candidacy.
Additionally, Rogers has earned endorsements from 36 elected officials and grassroots leaders, the most of any candidate in the race.
Regarding the findings of the new poll, Rogers for Florida spokesman Michael Stwarka stated:
“The growing momentum in this race is undeniable. Austin Rogers is leading because Panhandle and North Florida voters recognize him as a proven conservative who shares their values and will never waver in supporting President Trump and America First principles. FL-02 voters know they can always count on Austin Rogers to fight for their values in Congress.”
You can view the polling memo here.