A survey conducted by Rogers’ campaign says the GOP Primary has boiled down to a two-man race.
An internal poll shows congressional candidate Austin Rogers with a slight lead over Keith Gross as the Republican Primary nears. The poll, conducted for Rogers’ campaign, suggests a two-person race on the GOP side in Florida’s 2nd Congressional District.
The survey, conducted by Guidant Polling and Strategy, shows 21% of likely Republican Primary voters favor Rogers, a former U.S. Senate staff counsel, while 17% plan to vote for Gross, an attorney and former U.S. Senate candidate. Rogers’ lead falls within the poll’s margin of error of 4.9 percentage points.
“Austin Rogers enters the final weeks of the primary in the driver’s seat with a lead and clear momentum,” a polling memo reads. “His lead grows if you look at President (Donald) Trump‘s base, those that approve of the President and evangelical voters (70% of primary electorate).”
The poll was conducted July 29-31. It found 9% support Republican Party of Florida Chair Evan Power, while 8% favor Gulf County Superintendent Jim Norton. About 5% back Purple Heart veteran Luke Murphy, while 2% support retired Walton County Chief Deputy Audie Rowell and 1% like veteran Lee Jones. The poll found no significant support for Jefferson County businessman Nick Lewis.
The poll also found that the more voters have learned about the candidates, the more they like Rogers — and the less they like Gross. That marks a shift since March, when the pollster first found Gross ahead with 16% support, followed by Norton at 9%, Power at 4% and Rogers at just 3%.
In terms of favorability, about 35% of voters hold a favorable view of Rogers, while 8% view him unfavorably. By comparison, 35% now hold an unfavorable view of Gross and just 26% a favorable one, putting him underwater.
Pollsters also suggest one national figure could put the race away for Rogers: President Donald Trump.
“If President Trump were to endorse Austin in the final weeks of this race, his lead would grow substantially,” the polling memo states. “Everything points towards Austin Rogers heading towards a victory in the FL-02 Republican Primary, but President Trump’s endorsement would seal the deal.”
About 22% of likely Primary voters say Trump’s endorsement would make them more likely to support the President’s preferred candidate.
Among likely Primary voters who self-identify as “Trump’s strongest supporters,” Rogers leads Gross 23% to 17%, while 9% support Power, 8% favor Norton, 4% back Murphy and 3% prefer Rowell.
Rogers has also run as a strong social conservative. Among evangelicals, he holds a 22% to 15% lead over Gross, while 10% back Power, 8% Norton, 4% Murphy and 3% Rowell.
But the poll also shows more than a third of the electorate remains in play. About 38% of likely Primary voters told pollsters they remain undecided ahead of the Aug. 18 Primary, including 37% of evangelicals and 35% of Trump supporters.
You can view the polling memo here.
Original article in Florida Politics: https://floridapolitics.com/archives/810884-internal-shows-austin-rogers-with-slight-lead-on-keith-gross-in-cd-2/